Following is the text that shows on the top of the graph.

“The Yale economist Robert J. Shiller, created an index of American housing prices going back to 1890. It is based on sale prices of standard existing houses, not new construction, to track the value of housing as an investment over time. It presents housing values in consistent terms over 116 years, factoring out the effects of inflation.

The 1890 benchmark is 100 on the chart. If a standard house sold in 1890 for $100,000 (inflation-adjusted to today’s dollars), an equivalent standard house would have sold for $66,000 in 1920 (66 on the index scale) and $199,000 in 2006 (199 on the index scale, or 99 percent higher than 1890).”

The message here is that on a relative basis, prices today have lost close to 2/3’s of the price increases experienced from the late 1990’s to July 2006.

Keep in mind that this is a national index for standard existing houses. Therefore, you can argue that prices in some cities have stopped falling, hence creating a bottoming process. Is Miami one of those cities? Only time will tell.

Source: “Irrational Exuberance” 2nd Edition 2006 by Robert J. Shiller
http://www.macromarkets.com/csi_housing/sp_caseshiller.asp

If you have any questions or comments, please send me an e-mail to: michael@miamiflorida.com or call me at my mobile 305.450.0036

Share This

CONDO INVENTORY

At of the end of May 2009, Miami-Dade County had 19,923 Condos listed for sale. This represents the lowest number of Condos for sale since the inventory peaked at 24,905 in May 2008. The May number of 19,923 also represents a drop of 5.5% from April 2009.

Lower inventory levels is good news for Sellers and Developers and a strong warning to undecided Buyers who seem to be waiting for X price before they decide to buy.

CONDO SALES

As of the end of May 2009, Miami-Dade County recorded 757 sales of Condos which represents a 99.7% increase in sales from the lowest monthly sales number recorded which was December 2007.

This is another welcome sign for Sellers and Developers who are unloading inventory at fire-sale prices.

AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT

Average Price per square foot (SF)  is a better indicator of the state of Miami’s real estate market.

As of the end of May 2009, Miami-Dade County recorded an average price of $205/SF. Although this number is 15.8% higher than the April 2009 number, it is still 44.7% lower than the highest number recorded on May 2007.

SUMMARY

The above Inventory and Sales figures, combined with the attractive average price/sf numbers - certainly an improved picture from several months ago - continues to attract buyers to the unique deals available today.

And although some argue that an increased number of foreclosures could temporarily derailed this recovery - a possibility more evident in properties valued under $300,000.00 - the real estate sales outlook for the remainder of 2009 and into 2010 still favors a Buyers market.

Finally, smart money continues to chase investment opportunities with Developers, its Lenders and their respective unsold Condo inventory.

Don’t miss out on 2009 buying opportunities!

If you have any questions or comments, please send me an e-mail to: michael@miamiflorida.com or call me at my mobile 305.450.0036

Share This

Si usted ha estado siguiendo las noticias de la caída de los precios de las propiedades en Miami y se inclina a invertir en el mercado residencial de Miami, pero por una razón u otra todavía no se decide, le sugiero que lea detenidamente nuestro breve y mas reciente estudio titulado “Oportunidades de Compra en el Mercado Residencial de Miami“. Los datos están actualizados al 31 de marzo del 2009.

Si usted esta interesado en identificar que oportunidades existen de acuerdo a sus intereses particulares, envienos un e-mail a: michael@miamiflorida.com y/o ana@miamiflorida.com

También nos puede llamar al 305.450.0036 cel de Michael P. Schnabel o al 786.210.6578 cel de Ana M. Schnabel (Margare Báez).

Share This

We just updated our Miami Real Estate Market Presentation! and we have great news to report!

The number of Residential properties listed for Sale in Miami-Dade County continues the downward trend it began last June 2008 when it seems to have peaked at 41,924.

As of January 2009 the number of Residential properties listed for Sale in Miami-Dade County was 36,418. The following chart shows every December since 2002, but it also includes January 2009:

In addition to what is listed for sale, we also need to look at the number of properties sold each year.

And although the number of properties sold in Miami-Dade County has declined every year since 2005, the change from 2007 to 2008 has raised expectations for a positive change in 2009. See the following chart:

More and more bargain hunters are asking for properties listed for sale as bank owned properties (REO’s) or Short Sales (SSL’s).

Traditional sellers (non REO’s and non SSL’s) also have become more realistic about their asking prices. Those sellers who truly need to sell, are discounting more aggressively in order to compete with REO’s and SSL’s.

If you have any questions or comments, please send me an e-mail to: michael@miamiflorida.com or call me at my mobile 305.450.0036

Share This

Share This

Michael & Ana Schnabel

Share This

2,432 Condo folios

119 units of the 2,432 are in some stage of Foreclosure

334 units of the 2,432 are listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service

45 units of the 334 listed for sale show remarks related to Foreclosure

CONDO PRICES IN FORECLOSURE range from:
$150,000 to $650,000 or from $214 to $598 in Sq. Ft.

Highest Priced Foreclosure Unit for Sale

$650,000 ($435 sf) is the highest asking price which corresponds to unit #2204, a 3 bedroom 3 bathrooms with 1,493sf at the COURTS on 801 Brickell Key Blvd.

Highest Price Foreclosure Unit for Sale per Sq.Ft.

$598 sf ($579,000) is the highest asking price per Sq.Ft which corresponds to unit #1703, a 2 bedroom 2 bathrooms with 968sf at the ISOLA on 770 Claughton Island Dr.

Lowest Priced Foreclosure Unit for Sale

$150,000 ($214 sf) is the lowest asking price which corresponds to unit #602, a 1 bedroom 1 bathroom with 700sf at BRICKELL KEY CONDO II on 540 Brickell Key Dr.

Lowest Priced Foreclosure Unit for Sale per Sq.Ft.

$214 sf ($150,000) is the lowest price per Sq.Ft. which corresponds to unit #602, a 1 bedroom 1 bathroom with 700sf at BRICKELL KEY CONDO II on 540 Brickell Key Dr.

CONDO PRICES NOT IN FORECLOSURE range from:
$144,000 to $9,000,000 or from $204 to $2,023 in Sq. Ft.

Highest Priced Unit for Sale

$9,000,000 ($1,800 sf) is highest asking price which corresponds to unit PH3402, a 6 bedroom 5 bathrooms and 2 half bathrooms with 5,000sf at the ASIA on 900 Brickell Key Blvd.

Highest Priced Unit for Sale per Sq.Ft.

$2,023 sf ($7,750,000) is the highest price per Sq.Ft. which corresponds to unit PH4501, a 4 bedroom 3 bathrooms 1 half bathroom with 3,830sf at THREE TEQUESTA POINT on 848 Brickell Key Dr.

Lowest Priced Unit for Sale

$144,000 ($204 sf) is the lowest asking price which corresponds to unit #905, a 1 bedroom 1 bathroom with 708sf at THE ISOLA on 770 Claughton Island Dr.

Lowest Priced Unit for Sale per Sq.Ft.

$179.79 sf ($178,000) is the lowest price per Sq.Ft. which corresponds to unit #404, a 2 bedroom 2 bathroom with 968sf at THE ISOLA on 770 Claughton Island Dr.

If you have any questions or comments, please send me an e-mail to: michael.schnabel@mac.com or call me at 305.450.0036

Share This

From a total of 71 units for sale (of which 37 are foreclosures), 55 are one bedrooms (of which 31 are foreclosures) and 16 are studios (of which 6 are foreclosures) 

One (1) bedroom prices per SqFt range from $171 at The Club to $317 at The Sail.

Studio prices per SqFt range from $220 at The Club to $443 at Latitude on the River.

Notice on line 10 of the report, to the extreme right, the numbers 90% (assumes a 90% occupancy rate), 90% (assumes the unit is purchased at 90% of the asking price) and 4% (assumes a 4% annual expenses between property taxes and association fees).

Clearly, Cash Buyers have the advantage. 

Please note that the net returns do not take into account financing cost, price appreciation and/or taxes when sold.

The buildings covered in this report and sorted by the year they were built:

YEAR
BUILT    BUILDING NAME
2007     Latitude on the River on 7th St., west of Brickell Ave.
2006     Neo Vertika on 7th St., off Brickell. west of Brickell Ave.
2006     Emerald on 14th St. east of Brickell Ave.
2006     Sail on 14 St. east of Brickell Ave.
2006     Solaris on 12 Te. east of Brickell Ave.
2005     The Club on Brickell Bay Dr., east of Brickell Ave.
2004     Skyline on Brickell Ave.
2004     The Vue on South Miami Ave., west of Brickell Ave.
2001     The Mark on Brickell Bay Dr., east of Brickell Ave.
1998     Fortune House on 14 Te., east of Brickell Ave.
1991     Brickell Key II on Brickell Key, east of Brickell
1990     Isola on Brickell Key, east of Brickell

If you have any questions or comments, please send me an e-mail to: michael.schnabel@mac.com or call me at 305.450.0036

Share This

Well, before you think this is over, you need to consider a second wave of bad mortgages refer to as Alt-A loans.

As define by Wikepedia, “An Alt-A mortgage, short for Alternative A-paper, is a type of U.S. mortgage that, for various reasons, is considered riskier than A-paper, or “prime”, and less risky than “subprime,” the riskiest category. Alt-A interest rates, which are determined by credit risk, therefore tend to be between those of prime and subprime home loans.

Today the Wall Street Journal published the following article “Alternative Reality for Banks” in which the author questions the valuation methods banks use to price Alt-A loans in their balance sheets and I quote:

“Citigroup, which reported third-quarter earnings Thursday, said its $15.3 billion Alt-A portfolio was written down to 67 cents on the dollar, as of Sept. 30. By contrast, at the end of August, Morgan Stanley had slashed its Alt-A holdings to 35 cents on the dollar, while Goldman Sachs was at 50 cents on the dollar. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Holland’s ING Groep had its Alt-A at 82.7 cents on the dollar at the end of June — and hasn’t provided valuations since then.”

By know we all realize that Wall Street investment bankers were not all as smart as everyone thought. Well maybe not, since they did created this subprime and Alt-A markets, earned millions of dollars in the process and left the taxpayers with an initial debt payment of 700 billion in what seems to be more like a 2 to 3 trillion dollars crisis.

If you have any questions or comments, please send me an e-mail to: michael.schnabel@mac.com or call me at 305.450.0036

Share This

Is that a reason for economic concern? Well, that depends on who you ask.

A local economist will argue that Miami’s economy is all about 3 economic activities: Tourism, Trade and Construction.

TOURISM

With the Dollar gaining strength in recent months and with the prospects of a Global Recession, Miami’s tourism will be hurt. There is no doubt about this.

TRADE

The same Global Recession will clearly hurt our trade revenues not only with our partners south of us but also with Europe and Asia.

CONSTRUCTION

There you go, is all about “The Construction Crane Indicator”.

By anyones estimate, I would argue that as far as Condos construction is concerned, an educated guess suggest we have around 20% active cranes today vs. what we had at the peak of the Condo construction boom.

So how will Miami compensate for the lack of construction economic activity.

Well, one solution is for local government to step to the plate and engage and/or sponsored construction projects. We have seen signs of this in recent months. It was done before, in the early 80’s. Can they do it again?

If you have any questions or comments, please send me an e-mail to: michael.schnabel@mac.com or call me at 305.450.0036

Share This